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International Energy Agency (IEA) ; World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2009

10/06/09

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is an intergovernmental organization that acts as energy policy adviser to 28 member countries in their effort to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for their citizens.  At their  press conference at the Bangkok Climate Change Talks on Oct. 9, IEA representatives mainly talked about their forthcoming book: World Energy Outlook 2009, which will be published in Nov 10th. 2009.

In the press comference, the hosts presented some excerpts from the book. The book contains an analysis of climate change, and of the full impact of the financial crisis on the energy sector.  It also provides the “Reference Scenario: and “450 Scenario”, and analyzes international financial flows as well as the energy trends in Southeast Asian countries.

From the lecture, I learned that the financial and economic crisis have has a great influence on the energy sector. For instance, because of the

Financial Crisis, although many investments on clean energy have been canceled and postponed, but a great number of unsustainable investments were also been postponed.  Therefore, this will result in the global carbon emissions will actually declined 3% in 2009.

Therefore, the IEA Executive Director believes that this financial crisis is an opportunity for us to stabilize Green House Gas emissions at 450 ppm in line with the increase of 2 degrees Celsius in the global temperature. He thinks “this gives us a chance to make real progress towards a clean energy future” and “the success of the UNFCCC process is crucial in this regard.”

He also presented some charts from the World Energy Outlook 2009 to show the detailed analysis they did. For example, in the  450 p.p.m. scenario, they deemed that the use of fossil fuels would peak before 2020, and emissions in 2020 would need to be reduced by 3.8 gigatons(Gt) worldwide. 1.6 Gt of this reduction will occur in OECD countries (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development).

The IEA Executive Director talked about the benefits of the “450” scenario:(He showed the following slides:)

1. Avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.

2. Energy bills in industry, transport & buildings reduced by a total of $8.6 trillion between 2010 and 2030.

Only in transport we can save $6.2 trillion.

3. Energy-security benefits and reduced oil $ gas imports.

>For OECD countries, oil imports are 7 mb/d lower in 2030 than in 2008

>In China & India, oil imports by volume are around 15% lower than in the

Reference Scenario; China’s gas imports are 23% lower

4. Sharp reduction in air pollution relative to the Reference Scenario.

>In 2030, SO2emissions are 29% lower than in the Reference Scenario; NOx

emissions are 19% lower & emissions of particulate matter 9% lower

>$100 billion of pollution control savings in 2030 & substantial health benefits.

And at last, he mentioned that the deal in Copenhagen is crucial –every year of delay adds $500 billion to the energy sector’s mitigation costs between today & 2030.

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