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哥本哈根气候会议左右汽车业未来 Copenhagen Climate Conference Will Affect the Future of Automotive Industry

10/12/09

— Mengxiao Han, Nanjing China

Brief: In order to restrict emissions and stabilize carbon levels at 450ppm, in an effort to limit global temperatures to 2℃ warmer than pre-industrial times, the automotive industry, as one of the largest contributors to carbon emissions, will face great changes within the next ten years. And new energy automobiles undoubtedly will become the kernel of future development trends.

President Hu’s words at the UN summit on climate change in New York on September that China would cut carbon dioxide emissions by a notable margin by 2020 is a guideline for the development of the Chinese automotive industry. The Chinese government announced it aims to produce 0.5 million pure electric power automobiles, plug-in hybrids and normal hybrids in three years, accounting for 5% share of the automobile market. The development focuses of the Chinese new-energy automobile industry are pure electric automobiles, plug-in hybrids, special engines, power modules, driver components and optimal design etc.

 

看过9月22日纽约联合国气候变化峰会开篇的那段视频吗?在这个短短3分钟的短片中,来自全球各地的儿童用稚嫩的声音质问全球近百位各国首脑:未来,我们将从你们那里继承什么?

这的确是一个尴尬的时刻,自从12年之前的《京都议定书》因为美国的退却而夭折之后,即将在今年12月份上旬召开的哥本哈根气候会议将面临全球亿万的期待一点都不为过。

就在面临消失威胁的马尔代夫,其总统纳西德绝望地表示这个洼地的岛国已经是“大国煤矿最后的金丝鸟”后,第三个走上讲坛的中国国家主席胡锦涛坚定地肩负起一个大国的承诺:“2020年时单位GDP的二氧化碳排放比2005年有显著下降!”

要实现在本世纪内把温度的增幅减少在2摄氏度以内,大气的二氧化碳浓度低于450ppm,作为二氧化碳排放的第三大影响因素,汽车工业将在未来10年内面临蒸汽机时代以来最大的剧变。当然,新能源汽车已经毫无疑问是未来发展的方向,实际上,包括底特律三大在内的汽车巨头已经开始新的征途,通用汽车的Volt和福特汽车的新款混合动力汽车将在明年年初大规模投入市场。日产的电动汽车及奔驰的高效汽油和柴油混合动力汽车,已经或者即将投入商用。

那么,即将成为全球第一大车市的中国汽车工业会面临哪些革命性的变化?胡锦涛主席已经在全世界面前作出的承诺将是未来一系列产业政策的指引方向,如果以单位GDP作为考核指标,占据二氧化碳排放接近22%的汽车行业将会成为未来10年国家环境战略的核心内容之一。

所以,提升汽车行业的国家排放标准、显著地降低汽车的能耗、加大替代能源的研究和鼓励多种低能耗能源的研发投入在可以遇见的未来将成为汽车产业的指引方向。

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