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The 2009 China Green book about the road to Copenhagen (the prediction about the results of the meeting) 哥本哈根会议绿皮书


ByPucong Han, Beijing China

In 2009 the China Green book about the road to Copenhagen predicts that the meeting will end up with a specific global protocol, which maintains the global temperature within 2 degree centigrade. The long term emission cut will in turn require a negotiation after Copenhagen. In the Green Book some specialists, such as Jingyun Fang, also announced that China’s level of CO2 emission per person will reach a peak value in 2035 (1.7-3.0 ton per person per year). Professor Fang also predicts that this level of emission will decrease gradually and 2050 the level will be about 1.7-2.3 tons per person per year. The Green Book also says that China needs to practice a “New Green System,” which includes green economic development. The Green System here is necessary because the Green Book predicts that the Global energy investment will be as high as 22 trillion dollar sand China will require spending about 3.7 trillion dollars.

昨天,中国社科院在北京发布《应对气候变化报告(2009)——通向哥本哈根》绿皮书。在距今年12月的联合国哥本哈根气候会议不到50天之时,绿皮书指出,哥本哈根会议值得期待,但仍存不确定性,可能达成一个控制温升2度的框架性政治协议。 此外,有专家在昨天的发布会上指出,我国人均碳排放2035年前后或达峰值。 绿皮书指出,一种可能是达成一个明确保护全球气候,如控制温升2度的框架性政治协议,但对长期减排的具体表述和中期减排目标,则需要在后续谈判中艰难前行。 中国科学院院士、北京大学生态学系教授方精云昨天称,中国人均碳排放或将在2035年前后达到峰值,为每人每年1.7-3.0吨碳。之后逐步下降,2050年为每人每年1.7-2.3吨碳。 在此情况下,绿皮书建议中国亟需发展“绿色新政”,并预计在今后25年中,全球能源供应基础建设投资需求高达22万亿美元,仅中国需要3.7万亿美元,选择“绿色新政”和绿色经济发展模式具有重要的现实意义。

Chinese edited by Jingsi Chen

Come from: 东方早报

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