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Will China invest?

12/06/09

By Pucong Han, Beijing China

The Energy Research Institute at the National Development and Reform Commission released a report, “China’s 2050 low-carbon development path,” which plans a low carbon future development for China. This report clarifies that after considering demographic trends, socio-economic development and improvement of people’s life’s basic needs, energy endowments and technological changes and other aspects of the situation, China’s emissions of space needed for about 20 years in the future within the time required continue to increase. The report also further clarifies that China need to pay a great price in order to cut its emission to 30%-50%. In particular, if China limits the emission between 40% and 45%, it requires 78 billion US dollars every year from 2010 to 2020. In general, in order to cut emission, markets or companies need to decrease their cost by cutting employments. China’s particular emission cut level will lead to 400 thousand people lost their jobs, and China’s government need to help them with reorientation and re-employment. If this level of influence happens in the United States or in the European countries, the level of emission cut will not be passed.

中国哥本哈根难题:需每年新增投入780亿美元

在国家发改委能源研究所今年发布的一项名为《中国2050年低碳发展之路》的报告中,为中国设计了“节能”“低碳”和“强化低碳”三种发展情景。

在综合考虑人口趋势、社会经济发展、人民生活改善的基本需求、能源禀赋和技术变动等各方面的情况之后,专家的结论是:中国所需要的排放空间在未来大约20年的时间内还需要继续增加,这个是不以主观意志为转移的。

“中国在减排的问题上,已经付出了很大代价。”中国人民大学环境学院“能源与气候经济学项目”(PECE)组成员王克博士说。

“能源与气候经济学项目”主要目的之一是根据经济学模型和不同的情景构想,分析中国实现碳减排30%和50%目标所需要的增量成本,也就是经济代价。

据王克介绍,进一步降低碳排放强度到40%-45%,需要的新增投资从2010年到2020年每年大致在780亿美元左右(基于2005年不变价)。为实现该控排目标,额外付出的成本大概占2020年当年GDP的1.2%。

另一方面,实现减排,一般都从成本低的开始做起。“譬如‘十一五’规划中淘汰落后产能,关闭小火电时就涉及了40万人的转岗和再就业问题。倘若在美国、欧盟,有40万人的就业受到影响,很多举措根本推动不下去。”王克表示。

而随着减排工作往后推进,越来越多的地方企业将被迫做出结构调整,而如果没有对社会资源的良性再分配,生产就业问题将会使地方群体性事件和其他社会动荡一触即发。
Come from: News QQ

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5 Comments leave one →
  1. Taylor Cantril permalink*
    12/06/09 3:07 pm

    Pucong, are you sure that China is going to pay 1000 times as much as the U.S. bank bailout every year for the next ten years just to reduce their carbon intensity?

    • puconghan permalink*
      12/08/09 2:51 pm

      Just to clarify: the Bill for China to invest on Green tech including transfer coal plant is 78 billion US dollar/ per year. This amount of money is = the Bill for US to bailout companies for the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

      Sorry about the mistakes for the number calculation and hope this help you to clear about China’s position.

      Sincerely,
      Pucong

  2. Pucong permalink
    12/06/09 3:20 pm

    I am not sure if or not the government or the Five Year’s Plan will buy this calculation. But the current emission cut will lead to a ridiculous bill, which definately require a large amount of funds.
    Some scholars believe that this emission cut will hurt China’s momentum of development. However, some other voice also believe that this is a opportunity for China to shift its market structures.

  3. Pucong permalink
    12/06/09 3:23 pm

    My own opinion is if this amount of investments will help the rural developments and increase people’s live standard, the government have more possibility to buy the bill.

  4. puconghan permalink*
    12/08/09 2:53 pm

    Just to clarify: the Bill for China to invest on Green tech including transfer coal plant is 78 billion US dollar/ per year. This amount of money is close to the amount of the Bill for US to bailout companies for the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

    Sorry about the mistakes and hope this help everyone read my post to have a better understanding on China’s position.

    Sincerely,
    Pucong

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